As of April 23, the party platforms make clear that none of the major national political parties—Conservatives, Liberals, or NDP—have presented a realistic plan to balance the federal budget in the next mandate.

No party has addressed the elephant in the room: the rapid and continuing growth of Old Age Security (OAS), which is expanding faster than any other part of the federal budget.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh critiques Liberal leader Carney’s proposal to balance the operating budget within three years. While some plans to balance the budget deserve consideration, Mr. Singh’s blanket critique suggests that politics should deliver a “free lunch” to current voters. But there is no such thing, and that cost will ultimately be borne by younger and future generations.

Since winning the Liberal leadership, balancing the books has not been a major focus of Mr. Carney’s campaign. His platform plans to burst through the fiscal guard rails set in previous years under the Trudeau government. The Liberal leader promises to balance what he calls the “operating budget,” but excludes OAS and other large spending items that are not capital investments.  Deficit-financing large infrastructure projects can make sense to shore up our defence, build homes, fight climate change. But that shouldn’t preclude revisiting whether operational spending is efficient, including the delivery of $18,000 in annual OAS subsidies to retired couples with $180,000 in income. Accordingly, we judge Mr. Carney’s fiscal commitment to eliminate operating deficits reflects “silent neglect” more than a substantive plan.

Meanwhile, “Fix the budget” has often been a favorite phrase of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Yet, until he directly engages with the role that OAS plays in driving the deficit, we believe his promise falls squarely into the "slogan central" category, rather than offering the real deal.  His costed platform reveals as much.  It plans a deficit in 2028 that is around three-quarters of the size of the Liberal deficit, after we consistently account for revenue increases between the parties' fiscal plans.